Monday, October 20, 2008

"The Red Sox should pursue (Scott Boras free agent) early!"

It is never best to pursue a Scott Boras free agent early. The earlier a team pursues a Boras free agent, the higher Boras' demands are. Boras will always start with a demand of ridiculously high money for ridiculously many years for one of his free agents. If you want the Sox to sign a Boras free agent, it's best for the Sox to wait for Boras to reduce his demands. Boras reduces his demands at a snail's pace, so this wait requires a lot of patience.

Another reason not to pursue a Boras free agent early is because of what happens if that early pursuit includes making an early offer. The earlier the Sox make an offer to a Boras free agent, the earlier Boras negotiates that offer with other teams to get higher offers from other teams.

I know these first two paragraphs might look like they contradict each other, but they don't. For example, suppose Boras demands 8 years for $25 million a year to sign his free agent who you feel is worth 5 years for $16 million a year. Now suppose the Sox pursue early and make an early offer because they want Boras to give in. Let's even say it's a generous offer of 6 years for $20 million a year. Now he can go to other teams and try to get teams to top it. If at least one team tops it and the Sox still want to sign the player, now the Sox have to beat that higher offer to do so. Then Boras can continue to work teams against each other to raise the price and/or years.

On the other hand, suppose the Sox wait for Boras to lower his demands for that player. Boras won't have as much* success working teams against each other because he'll have less and/or lower offers to work with. Eventually, and I can't emphasize enough that it requires a lot of patience, the Sox will be more likely to* be able to sign the player for less money and/or years than if they pursue him early.

*Please do not misinterpret these sentences as though the words in red aren't included. I'm not saying that waiting means the Sox will be able to sign a Boras free agent without drastically overpaying or that they'll sign him at all. I'm only saying that waiting improves their chances. Usually I don't get my hopes up about signing a Boras free agent at all because of 1) this and/or 2) whoever signs a Boras free agent will likely overpay in both money and years to do so, regardless of how that team approaches its efforts to sign him.

Before you decide the Sox should sign free agent X...

Before you decide that the Sox need to sign any free agent, one of the many issues you have to remember is the Yankees. If the Yankees have a need, an interest and a spot available for a free agent to get a lot of playing time, chances are that free agent won't be signing with the Red Sox. Steinbrenner simply will not let the Red Sox outbid the Yankees for a free agent both teams want.

"But what if the Sox offer $X million for him?", you might ask. The answer is that Steinbrenner will offer more. Whether it's a starting pitcher whom any team would want if money weren't an issue, or whether it's a position player of a position both the Yankees and Red Sox need to fill (examples: Damon for CF in the '05-'06 offseason, A-Rod for 3B in the '07-'08 offseason), the Red Sox won't offer more than the Yankees if the Yankees want that player.

Some potential examples for the 2008-9 offseason:
Sabathia
Teixeira (if you're under the impression that Lowell won't be healthy enough for the Sox in '09 and you want Youkilis to play 3B)

I'm not saying these 2 players will definitely be Yankees, as opposed to Vladimir Guerrero or Carlos Beltran when they signed longterm contracts with other teams. I'm saying they won't sign with the Red Sox if the Yankees want either or even both of these players. Steinbrenner has already made it clear that he's more willing to let a valuable free agent go to another team than he is for that free agent go to Boston.

"But the Sox outbid the Yankees for Dice-K", you might say. This isn't a valid argument because that was a secret bid. Unlike free agency, the Yankees didn't have the opportunity to be told, "The Red Sox bid $51,111,111.11. Will you bid more?".

If you don't believe this post, feel free to try to think of the last time a free agent who fit the criteria mentioned above signed with the Red Sox. At best you might be able to come up with one who re-signed with the Red Sox.