Monday, October 20, 2008

Before you decide the Sox should sign free agent X...

Before you decide that the Sox need to sign any free agent, one of the many issues you have to remember is the Yankees. If the Yankees have a need, an interest and a spot available for a free agent to get a lot of playing time, chances are that free agent won't be signing with the Red Sox. Steinbrenner simply will not let the Red Sox outbid the Yankees for a free agent both teams want.

"But what if the Sox offer $X million for him?", you might ask. The answer is that Steinbrenner will offer more. Whether it's a starting pitcher whom any team would want if money weren't an issue, or whether it's a position player of a position both the Yankees and Red Sox need to fill (examples: Damon for CF in the '05-'06 offseason, A-Rod for 3B in the '07-'08 offseason), the Red Sox won't offer more than the Yankees if the Yankees want that player.

Some potential examples for the 2008-9 offseason:
Sabathia
Teixeira (if you're under the impression that Lowell won't be healthy enough for the Sox in '09 and you want Youkilis to play 3B)

I'm not saying these 2 players will definitely be Yankees, as opposed to Vladimir Guerrero or Carlos Beltran when they signed longterm contracts with other teams. I'm saying they won't sign with the Red Sox if the Yankees want either or even both of these players. Steinbrenner has already made it clear that he's more willing to let a valuable free agent go to another team than he is for that free agent go to Boston.

"But the Sox outbid the Yankees for Dice-K", you might say. This isn't a valid argument because that was a secret bid. Unlike free agency, the Yankees didn't have the opportunity to be told, "The Red Sox bid $51,111,111.11. Will you bid more?".

If you don't believe this post, feel free to try to think of the last time a free agent who fit the criteria mentioned above signed with the Red Sox. At best you might be able to come up with one who re-signed with the Red Sox.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

I respectfully disagree. Just because the Yankees can (and will) throw tons of money at people, that organization is no longer a lock to sign the big free agents. As a matter of fact, the last time they signed a big free agent who wasn't already in the organization to begin with was when they brought back Clemens and Pettitte when their contracts with Houston were up. Every other "big" free agent over the last few years has signed elsewhere with the exception of Immortals like LaTroy Hawkins, Morgan Ensberg, Richie Sexson, and Miguel Cairo.

I know what you're saying: that was before Giambi was off the books, along with the other bucks that are coming off the ledger this off-season; now they have money with which to play.

But the fact remains that the team with the largest payroll in baseball has either missed the playoffs ('08) or been knocked out in the first round each of the last five seasons, their aging stars are continuing to age, and they have a ruthless media contingent and an egomaniac as the team's official mouthpiece.

All this is independent of the team's manager, Joe Girardi. For many years, the Yankees were a hot spot for free agents because of the money, the chance to go to the postseason every year, AND Joe Torre.

Now Torre's gone, the Yankees don't go deep in the playoffs anymore, and all that's left is the money...and with revenue sharing and the talent disparity between small market teams and larger market teams like growing smaller every year, the Bronx is no longer THE place to go if you want to get rich and win a ring.

C.C. Sabathia has said he wants to pitch in the NL and would prefer a West Coast team. That's not the Yankees. Teixeira makes more sense, but he liked it in Anaheim and also has ties to the Baltimore area, where the Orioles are in desperate need of a star. I just don't think it's right to assume that just because they have the deepest pockets, the Yankees are automatically the team to beat when it comes to landing free agents.

Believe it or not, some guys care less about the money and more about their chances of winning or just being happy where they are. For an extreme case of the latter scenario, look at the waiver claim trade that wasn't for Brian Giles and the Red Sox. Numerous others have taken less money than they were offered to stay/go somewhere they truly enjoyed playing.

The Yankees and their checkbook are an obstacle, but they aren't an omnipresent threat any longer; baseball players and agents have smartened up and learned that money isn't everything over the last five years or so. That money isn't as enjoyable if you're miserable where you're making it, and these contracts will likely be unmovable if the player (or the team) discovers he (it) isn't happy with that signing once the shine wears off.

On a completely separate note, the Yankees also just re-signed GM Brian Cashman to a multiyear deal; given his preference for introducing young talent to replace aging veterans and to continue to bolster the farm system, I doubt he'd have re-upped if he'd been told that the team was going to overspend (and lose draft picks, more importantly) to land big-time free agents when the track record around the Majors over the last 7-8 years has shown that aging veterans don't win titles anymore. I think the Yanks are good for one big free agent signing and maybe 1-2 smaller ones, but the rest of the team will be comprised of their own pre-existing talent and maybe a trade or two.

I guess only time will tell. Good 'blog, though. :)

-Matt

sfip said...

Matt, I already said it's possible CC and Teix won't be Yankees. My point regarding CC and Teix is that they won't be Red Sox. Yes, even with the Red Sox outplaying the Yankees the last 2 years.

If they avoid the Yankees because of a ruthless media contingent, Boston isn't the place to go, either.

Virtually all Boras guys will take the best offer, and I don't see Teix as an exception. The Yankees won't allow Boston to give the best offer.

Only time will tell if CC goes to an NL team in the West Coast. I agree that it's possible, but he certainly won't go to Boston for reasons I've mentioned.

Thanks for the compliment about the blog.

Anonymous said...

I think you're wrong about this, but let's say you're right.

Then the Sox - not being unaware of such things - will logically bid higher and higher on any such players in order to force the Yankees to overpay. So expect the Yankees to sign Teixeira for what... 10 years at $30m/yr and C.C.Sabathia for, say, 8 years at $28m/yr. Because if it's true that Steinbrenner will not allow the Sox to outbid them, then it only makes sense to force the numbers sky high.

At what point do even the Yankees have to start reining in such spending? You have to figure that point will come soon enough. And when it does, then your premise is fails, and Boston can get their hands on that premium talent again.

Your argument could only be right in the short term - and in fact I have reservations that it is true at all. The Sox have stacks of payroll headroom and in a post Manny world could make extremely competitive bids for the right free agent, with a much greater track record of recent success to sweeten the pot.

sfip said...

If the Sox bid to the point where the Yankees spend such outrageous amounts on players, it raises the value of other players when agents compare those other players to the players the Yankees are signing.

The Sox have stacks of payroll headroom and in a post Manny world could make extremely competitive bids for the right free agent, as you said. The Yankees have stacks of payroll headroom in a post Giambi, Abreu, Pavano, etc. world and are pressed to get players to help promote a new stadium. Plus, they always have a motivation to be on the back page of NY papers even when they're not opening a new stadium.

btp said...

I'm not sure what your criteria are, but Mike Lowell spurned an offer from ny to stay in Boston.

sfip said...

You didn't think the Yankees really wanted to sign Lowell instead of A-Rod, do you? Lowell did turn down an extra year from the Phillies and Dodgers, but I didn't see anything saying he turned down the Yankees. The Yankees got briefly involved, but if I had to guess it was only to drive up the price of Lowell.

The only possible exception to my rule in this blog post is when someone on the Red Sox re-signs, which is why I ended the post the way I did. I don't believe Lowell is that exception.

jjv said...

Those of you who actually believe a player will sign for anyhting but the biggest bucks are on crack. When you understand the fact that a ball players career is measured in terms of only a few years on average and that every play they make has the potential to end their career you will then understand why the money is so important.

Add to that the glory and prestige (yes folks, still the prestige) of playing with the most successful franchise in sports history and it is clear why almost every young ball player and most older ones want to be a NYY.

AS for the argument (silly) that the Yankees have missed the WS in the last 8 years or so? They have at least been in contention, unlike the drought from 1966 through 1977 and then from 1979 through 1995.

Bottom line is the Yankees in all but possibly 1% of the cases will get whomever they want and have the money to spare.

The RS have had a good run over the past few years but they are on the cusp of a long slide. The loss of Ramirez will render Ortiz almost useless as he will be pitched around. Youklis had a career year and will revert to form and Pedroia, while a good ball player will not be enough to make a real difference in the direction the RS are about to take, namely down hill.

sfip said...

Now that both Sabathia and Teixeira have signed with the Yankees, any questions?

Anonymous said...

I am impressed by the prescience and reasoning of your thesis and don't disagree. For the last month, I have told my husband and any friends that would listen that I couldn't see why the Yankees wouldn't sign Teix.

I have a question: do you have easy access to the numbers that show how Teix hits against the probable Red Sox pitchers?

sfip said...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/bvsp?playerId=4937&teamId=2